In 2021, Transpower, New Zealand’s electricity System Operator, performed a load forecast trial where TESLA Forecast was selected based on a range of criteria.
Since implementing the new forecast in February 2022, Transpower has been tracking metrics monthly, which include analysis of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for different forecast horizons.
In the chart below, the average MAPE is calculated for each forecast horizon over the duration of July 2022. The morning and evening peak’s MAPEs are weighted 5 times more than other time periods as these are critical forecast intervals for the system operator.
The graph below clearly shows that TESLA Forecast on average is performing better than Transpower’s previous load forecast for all forecast horizons. This trend is also seen on a regional basis.
The original report can be found here.