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New Zealand’s Peak Demand Growth
2021 was an interesting year for the New Zealand power market with demand clocking record highs in both June and August. This case study uses TESLA’s Weather Risk tool to quantify New Zealand’s peak demand growth from 2015 – 2021. Read the full case study here....
Singapore’s Peak and Total Load Growth
This case study utilizes TESLA’s Weather Adjusted Load to calculate Singapore’s Year-on-Year total load growth over the past decade. It also applies Weather Risk to calculate Singapore’s Year-on-Year peak demand growth. Since 2012, Singapore’s total weather corrected demand grew by 18.8%, while peak demand grew by 12.6%. Read the full case study here....
Holiday Forecasting: Bonifacio Day in the Philippines
Bonifacio Day is a national regular holiday in the Philippines celebrated every 30th of November to remember the birthday of Andrés Bonifacio. This case study illustrates how power demand in Luzon fluctuates when this holiday occurs on different days of the week. It also uses Weather Adjusted Load to show how rapidly power demand in...
Holiday Forecasting: Labor Thanksgiving Day in Japan
Labor Thanksgiving Day is an annual holiday in Japan celebrated on 23rd November each year, unless that day falls on a Sunday, in which case the holiday is moved to Monday. This year, 23rd November falls on a Tuesday. Naturally, we don’t have a whole lot of holiday observations and since the Japanese power market...
TESLA and Solcast team up to bring more accurate demand ‘Nowcasting’ to South Australia
With South Australia’s increased dependence on renewable energy, accurate forecasting has become extremely critical. TESLA and solar radiation data experts Solcast have tackled this task with a new forecasting methodology. Read more about the project here....
Arizona Public Service’s Day Ahead Trading Improved
APS is the largest electric utility in Arizona, United States. With 6,500 MW of generating capacity, APS serves more than one million customers in 11 counties throughout most of the state. From APS’s perspective, power generation from rooftop PV is essentially negative demand, contributing to the duck curve in APS’s daily load profile. Significant challenges...
NZ Hits Summer Demand High
New Zealand is a winter electricity peaking system, but it also sees some very high demand days in the middle of the summer. The three extremely hot days from 29 to 31 January set the highest total summer demand days in NZ. This article analyzes the contributing factors (both weather and non-weather effects) via weather...
New Zealand’s underlying 2017 winter power growth far higher than 2016’s
Controlling for weather effects, TESLA Asia Pacific Ltd observed 0.68% growth in New Zealand power demand this winter. This is an uptick from the slight 0.07% increase we saw last year. Observed total winter power demand increased by 1.75% from 2016 to 2017, this growth is mainly due to 2017’s winter being cooler than 2016’s....
Serving the UK’s Biggest Energy Provider
As the largest supplier of energy to the United Kingdom, Centrica’s demand forecasting needs are complex and wide ranging. The variety and magnitude of the company’s customer base represents a welcome challenge to TESLA and its demand models. Read more about how TESLA’s accurate load forecasts helped improve Centrica’s planning decisions here....
Accuracy – TESLA load forecasts continue to outperform the System Operator’s throughout the winter
This report compares both the load forecasts provided by TESLA via EMS’ em6 and the System Operator’s load forecast (at 2.5 hours ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. As does the report released by Transpower, this report seeks to separate out the conforming loads for further analysis. EMS provides a detailed load forecasting accuracy...
Accuracy – TESLA load forecasts continue to outperform the System Operator’s over tricky shoulder month
This report compares both the load forecasts provided by TESLA via EMS’ em6 and the System Operator’s load forecast (at 2.5 hours ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. As does the report released by Transpower, this report seeks to separate out the conforming loads for further analysis. EMS provides a detailed load forecasting accuracy...
CESC’s Generation Scheduling Improved
CESC is India’s first fully integrated electrical utility company. Since 1897, they have been generating and distributing power in Kolkata and Howrah. CESC owns and operates the transmission and distribution system through which they supply electricity to consumers. Read more about how TESLA’s accurate load forecasts helped improve CESC’s generation scheduling and reducing Unscheduled Interchange...
Accuracy – TESLA load forecasts reduce uncertainty by a third compared to the New Zealand System Operator
This report compares both the load forecasts provided by TESLA via EMS’ em6 and the System Operator’s load forecast (at 2.5 hours ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. As does the report released by Transpower, this report seeks to separate out the conforming loads for further analysis. EMS provides a detailed load forecasting accuracy...
Improving forecast accuracy for Mercury’s retail portfolio
Mercury is a New Zealand electricity generation and electricity retailing company. Mercury has about a 15 percent share of New Zealand electricity sales and supplies all segments of the market. All of the company’s electricity generation is renewable. Read more about how TESLA helped Mercury to improve the forecast accuracy of their retail portfolios. Mercury Case...
Helping Orion to meet service obligations to their customers
Orion owns and operates the electricity distribution network that provides power to central Canterbury. As one of the largest electricity distribution networks in New Zealand, Orion covers remote rural areas, regional towns and the city of Christchurch. Read more about how TESLA helped Orion in New Zealand to forecast uncontrolled load for load management purposes,...
Accuracy – TESLA load forecasts continued to outperform those of the System Operator for December 2016
This report compares both the load forecasts provided by TESLA via EMS’ em6 and the System Operations load forecast (at 2.5 hours ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. As does the report released by Transpower, this report aggregates conforming and non-conforming load. Future reports released by Transpower may look to separate these components as...
Accuracy – TESLA load forecasts were nearly twice as accurate as the System Operator in New Zealand
This report compares both the load forecasts provided by TESLA via EMS’ em6 and the System Operations load forecast (at 2.5 hours ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. As does the report released by Transpower, this report aggregates conforming and non-conforming load. Future reports released by Transpower may look to separate these components as...
Weather Effect Decomposition – New Zealand’s Underlying Electricity Load is Growing
Controlling for weather effects, TESLA Asia Pacific Ltd observed slight growth in New Zealand power demand during the 2016 winter. Although observed total winter power demand has dropped by 1.87% from 2015 to 2016, this contraction is only temporary as it’s the result of a milder than normal winter. When controlling for weather effects, the...
Long Range Load Forecasting – Seasonal Review: ERCOT Summer 2016
Earlier in the year, TESLA, Inc. presented our Seasonal Perspective for ERCOT coming into Summer 2016. Our Seasonal Perspectives are intended to give an advance look at the high demand heating and cooling seasons. They are projections of the potentiality for the peak in month, the accumulated energy over the month and the coincident...
Accuracy – Medium Term Load Forecast Trial Results: Transpower New Zealand
Transpower is the owner and operator of the bulk electric transmission system in New Zealand. In 2012, TESLA, Inc. participated in a live trial to construct a comprehensive medium term load forecasting solution for Transpower. Their report of the results of the trial demonstrates our capacity to lead the industry in accuracy. Trial Results ...
Accuracy – Eid Holiday Results: Saudi Electricity Company
Saudi Electric Company manages the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to all customers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. TESLA (Europe) Ltd have been providing load forecasting solutions for SEC since 2014. We put particular emphasis on the treatment of holidays in our forecasting models. SEC were particularly pleased with our ability to forecast...