 TESLA, Inc. provides products and
services for forecasting and weather effects analysis, with fully
developed models for the utility industries and other
weather-sensitive industries. The Tesla model provides fast, highly
accurate forecasts and weather effects analysis to the electric and
gas utilities and traders operating in those industries, on
intervals ranging from sub-hourly forecasts to strategic horizons.
The list of TESLA products in use by utilities
in the United States and the United Kingdom includes the following:
- Distribution models
- Supply models
- Area models
- Total Grid System Demand (TGSD) models
- Hedging contract models
- Circuit-level models
- Trading models
Distribution models are used to forecast and
analyze the power transmitted over the grid by a specific
distribution utility, to electricity customer attached to that
grid. They are used for short-term forecasting, business financial
analysis, and strategic planning.
Supply models are used to forecast and analyze
the load demanded by the customers of a company supplying
electricity to end users, regardless of how or where they are
connected to the grid. A supplier may or may not be a power
distribution company.
Area models are similar to distribution models,
but cover areas comprised of several utility companies. Examples
include the National Metered Demand model developed for the England
and Wales portion of the United Kingdom grid, and the PJM pool model
developed in the United States. Clients use these models to develop
an idea of how competing firms in the aggregate are apt to behave.
TGSD models forecast the future load that will
be predicted by the National Grid authorities in the United Kingdom,
a day in advance of their prediction. Client companies use the
model to anticipate demand forecasts and hence future prices.
Hedging models are firm-specific models
developed to help client companies in the United Kingdom negotiate
long-term fixed-price, quantity-flex contracts. They allow clients
to explore how their requirements will change based on within-season
variations in major weather variables.
Circuit level models, as the name implies, are
models developed at the feeder or grid supply point level. These
models are used for capital planning purposes, and, when
circuit-level customer composition data are available, allow
inferences about the behavior of customer types.
Trading models support active wholesale power
trading. They must be both responsive and very accurate. While
structurally based on the same basic design as distribution models,
they include error filter routines that reference recent load
experience for greater accuracy. |
