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What is TESLA?

What makes TESLA better than alternative load forecasting tools?

What are the data requirements?

What happens if we don't keep the data up to date?

Aren't weather effects irrelevant for long-term analysis?

Who uses it now?

What areas it can cover?

How fast is the TESLA model?

How quickly can it be available?

What is TESLA?

  • TESLA is an extremely accurate menu-driven system for energy load forecasting. TESLA also computes weather normalized load and constructs simulation scenarios, and can be interfaced easily with macroeconomic models. It is available in multiple computing environments, including as a desktop application, as a network server, or as a component integrated within a larger system.

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What makes TESLA better than alternative load forecasting tools?

  • TESLA is more accurate than any other products currently on the market. For this reason, TESLA is available on a pay-for- performance basis.

  • A TESLA model treats weather, in particular, much more carefully than other models. For instance, temperature effects are recognized to be nonlinear in nature, and the shape of the temperature response curve is itself dependent on other weather variables (eg humidity or cloud cover), recent weather history, time of day, type of day, day of week, and "calendar events." 

  • The real world is a complicated place. TESLA is accurate because it carefully tracks and takes into account a multitude of effects that together determine variations in load.

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What are the data requirements?

  • TESLA requires hourly observations on  five major weather variables: temperature, humidity, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation.  For best performance, it also requires recent load data, of the appropriate periodicity (hourly or sub-hourly, depending on the model periodicity).

  • Beyond that, though, TESLA derives most of the information it requires for a forecast from its internal data sources.

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What happens if we don't keep the data up to date?

  • TESLA will gradually revert to producing forecasts based on seasonal normal weather, which it can access from its internal files.  The model will then capture normal daily and weekly cycles, and recognize holidays, but performance may be degraded when the weather deviates significantly from seasonal norms .

  • As soon as the data are updated, the forecasts regain accuracy automatically

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Aren't weather effects irrelevant for long-term analysis?

  • Not at all. Consider building a long-term analysis that includes typical, high-demand, and low-demand profiles.

  • Because the TESLA model contains a normal weather history, the typical profile can readily be built based on normal weather and "most likely" economic and demographic projections. The model can also generate risk analyses of high-demand and low-demand scenarios based on alternative economic conditions and corresponding harsh or mild weather periods.

  • This sort of analysis is not really feasible without careful treatment of weather effects.

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Who uses it now?

  • The TESLA system is in use in 24 companies in the United States and 7 companies in the United Kingdom (as of end of 2006).  Users include power dispatchers, energy traders, and financial analysts.

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What areas can it cover?

  • TESLA is used for a wide variety of energy demand applications:

    • Electricity: Client-specific models

      • Native load

      • Control zone

      • Complex deemed-take settlement data

      • Distribution circuit level loads

      • Load disaggregated by customer profile class

      • Individual customer loads

    • Electricity: Pool models (both aggregate and zonal demand:

      • PJM (USA Mid_Atlantic to Great Lakes)

      • MISO (USA Midwest ISO)

      • ERCOT (USA Texas)

      • NEISO (USA New England)

      • NYISO (USA New York ISO)

      • Ontario IMO (Canada)

      • UK National Demand (NMD/INDO)

      • BGS Auction obligations (e.g., New Jersey, Illinois BGS)

    • Gas demand

    • Wind power facility generation forecasting

    • District heat/steam/CHP

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How fast is the TESLA model?

  • On a desktop computer using an Athlon 700 MHz processor with 128 megabytes of 100 MHz RAM, the compute engine needs about 8 seconds to solve a half-hourly model over one year (17,520 periods).

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How quickly can it be available?

  • A TESLA system can be delivered within thirty days after receipt of an order along with clean weather and load data.

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