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What is TESLA?
What makes TESLA better than alternative load forecasting tools?
What are the data requirements?
What happens
if we don't keep the data up to date?
Aren't
weather effects irrelevant for long-term analysis?
Who
uses it now?
What areas it can cover?
How fast is the TESLA model?
How quickly can it be
available?
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TESLA is an extremely accurate menu-driven system for
energy load forecasting. TESLA also computes weather normalized load and
constructs simulation scenarios, and can be interfaced easily with
macroeconomic models. It is available in multiple computing environments,
including as a desktop application, as a network server, or as a component
integrated within a larger system.
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TESLA is more accurate than any other products currently
on the market. For this reason, TESLA is available on a pay-for- performance
basis.
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A TESLA model treats weather, in particular, much more
carefully than other models. For instance, temperature effects are recognized
to be nonlinear in nature, and the shape of the temperature response curve is
itself dependent on other weather variables (eg humidity or cloud cover),
recent weather history, time of day, type of day, day of week, and "calendar
events."
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The real world is a complicated place. TESLA is accurate
because it carefully tracks and takes into account a multitude of effects that
together determine variations in load.
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TESLA requires hourly observations on five major weather
variables: temperature, humidity, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation.
For best performance, it also requires recent load data, of the appropriate
periodicity (hourly or sub-hourly, depending on the model periodicity).
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Beyond that, though, TESLA derives most of the
information it requires for a forecast from its internal data sources.
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TESLA will gradually revert to producing forecasts based
on seasonal normal weather, which it can access from its internal files. The
model will then capture normal daily and weekly cycles, and recognize
holidays, but performance may be degraded when the weather deviates
significantly from seasonal norms .
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As soon as the data are updated, the forecasts regain
accuracy automatically
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Not at all. Consider building a long-term analysis that
includes typical, high-demand, and low-demand profiles.
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Because the TESLA model contains a normal weather
history, the typical profile can readily be built based on normal weather and
"most likely" economic and demographic projections. The model can also
generate risk analyses of high-demand and low-demand scenarios based on
alternative economic conditions and corresponding harsh or mild weather
periods.
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This sort of analysis is not really feasible without
careful treatment of weather effects.
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