Further Discussion

A significant amount of energy use is for heating, cooling, and lighting. A factor in determining the energy usage for these purposes is the amount of solar energy reaching the earth at any point in time. Generally, measures of insolation are not available for historical periods nor are they directly forecast. However, the amount of energy arriving at a point on the earth's surface can be predicted from the angle of the sun above the horizon and the amount of cloud cover present.
The exact timing of sunrise and sunset are also important factors in energy use in the hours around those events. For example, the portion of an hour or other accounting period that falls before sunrise or after sunset is an important determinant for establishing the amount of lighting used during that period.

The TESLA model determines the solar energy potential for a given time and place from ephemeris tables that provide the angle of the sun above the horizon during the hours of daylight, and the exact times of sunrise and sunset. By combining these data with cloud cover information, we are able to develop an accurate picture of the effective amount of solar energy available.

System Scale Indicators

System size measures fall into two categories. First, service areas change occasionally, and these measures track such events and allow model stratification to deal with the fact. Second, measures like customer count by category provide direct evidence of system scale, including growth over time. We should note at this point that the model is extremely accurate without customer count data, and most of our systems as installed do not include such a measure. However, these data can be used to improve scale projections if they are available.
 

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